Prediction of rice production in West Bengal considering monsoon over time
Author(s): Upendra Kumar Sahoo and Tirthankar Ghosh
Abstract: Agriculture plays a vital role in India's economic growth, with over 50% of the workforce engaged in this sector. Weather conditions, particularly rainfall and temperature, significantly impact agricultural productivity. This study focuses on forecasting kharif rice yield at the district level in West Bengal using Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and Maximum Temperature (MTEMP). Linear Regression (LR) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), the two models are employed to estimate yield trends. Additionally, the influence of ISMR and MTEMP on rice yield is analysed to assess their statistical significance. ISMR significantly affects rice yield in the districts Bankura, Bardhaman, East Midnapore, Maldah, and Uttar Dinajpur of West Bengal revealed by correlation analysis. The study utilised the historical data from 1997 to 2024 to enhance forecasting accuracy and provide insights for policymakers and agricultural planners. The findings contribute to improving yield predictions and developing climate-change strategies for sustainable rice production in West Bengal.
Pages: 158-177 | Views: 64 | Downloads: 35Download Full Article: Click Here
How to cite this article:
Upendra Kumar Sahoo, Tirthankar Ghosh. Prediction of rice production in West Bengal considering monsoon over time. Int J Multidiscip Trends 2025;7(4):158-177.
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